Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 8.519000 10.046526 11.730247 13.718471 15.996464 18.519098 21.518127
2024-12-29 6.159876 8.115136 10.479114 13.525654 17.323290 21.874848 27.713640
2025-01-05 4.545860 6.589223 9.261927 12.966256 17.911877 24.225008 32.820205
2025-01-12 3.635163 5.722766 8.643041 12.944921 19.021968 27.185269 38.839447
2025-01-19 2.975338 5.047936 8.127083 12.913501 20.014763 29.979590 44.788082
2025-01-26 2.656920 4.807689 8.171210 13.641387 22.093965 34.387264 53.260700
2025-02-02 2.367365 4.551355 8.134158 14.208521 23.948635 38.578743 61.702600
2025-02-09 2.144142 4.361110 8.161951 14.855056 25.951640 43.106526 70.929323
2025-02-16 1.847981 3.984844 7.818229 14.834064 26.863289 46.002629 77.847381
2025-02-23 1.538402 3.524256 7.256474 14.359965 26.958007 47.585188 82.784252
2025-03-02 1.269034 3.090098 6.675521 13.768825 26.771442 48.661065 86.934973
2025-03-09 1.112749 2.860525 6.445528 13.781289 27.617625 51.472196 94.055398
2025-03-16 0.965103 2.626347 6.182316 13.716122 28.346519 54.186952 101.289607
2025-03-23 0.843465 2.427877 5.963717 13.711217 29.183467 57.146931 109.138565
2025-03-30 0.700446 2.146137 5.524061 13.202297 29.007221 58.286376 113.886571
2025-04-06 0.614847 1.991244 5.339830 13.198584 29.803100 61.221820 121.969131
2025-04-13 0.539611 1.846908 5.156943 13.172248 30.542798 64.089910 130.084300
2025-04-20 0.516764 1.845545 5.314098 13.914722 32.912903 70.168789 144.409499
2025-04-27 0.486364 1.815509 5.395934 14.492392 34.980570 75.786580 158.167580
2025-05-04 0.461918 1.798537 5.508040 15.150412 37.266951 81.957005 173.275819
2025-05-11 0.409898 1.681633 5.342857 15.129115 38.076702 85.261679 183.089591
2025-05-18 0.346795 1.510999 5.005787 14.646754 37.820966 86.408650 188.784681
2025-05-25 0.288847 1.341036 4.640596 14.045247 37.234120 86.828166 193.052915